with the National Weather Service
Here is an AI-government partnership that’s less… disturbing than others. Google DeepMind and the National Hurricane Center are collaborating for tropical cyclones. The AI research laboratory It claims that it can predict hurricane intensities and paths with at least the accuracy of traditional methods. NHC forecasters are already using DeepMind AI model
. Google says the AI models are designed to complement, not replace human NHC forecasters. (Although President Trump has already cut the National Weather Service’s headcount. The company also makes sure to describe its models “experimental.”
Google claims its models offer less trade-offs than predictions based on physics. The more accurate these methods are in predicting a hurricane’s course, the worse they do at predicting its intensity. (And vice versa.). The company claims that its experimental system is accurate for both. DeepMind supports this
with data gathered from real-life hurricanes over the past two years. Its five-day prediction of hurricane track is 87 miles more accurate than ENS, the widely used traditional model. Google’s model was similar to a 3.5 day prediction model. It’s the equivalent of getting an extra 1.5 days warning with the same degree of confidence. According to the company, it takes a decade or more to achieve such an improvement.
Google launches a new website in conjunction with the NHC collaboration. Weather Lab is now allowing public previews of AI storm predictions. You can view both historical and live predictions. You can compare them with physics-based versions to see how they measure up.
You shouldn’t treat Weather Lab’s experimental predictions as official. The website is useful if you are in Hurricane Alley. You can check it right now.
