Despite all the talk of artificial intelligence transforming the world, its economic impacts remain uncertain. Daron Acemoglu, 2024 Nobel laureate and Institute Professor, has some insights. Acemoglu, despite some predictions that AI would double US GDP growth in the next decade, expects it will increase GDP by 1,1% to 1,6% over the next ten years, with an annual productivity gain of approximately 0.05%. This
The assessment was based on estimates of the number of jobs affected. However, his opinion is that this effect will be targeted.
He says, “We’ll still have journalists, financial analysts, and HR employees.” It will affect a lot of office jobs, such as data summarization, visual matching, pattern identification, etc. These jobs are only 5% of the total economy.
He believes the technology has a lot more potential but is concerned that AI companies have so far focused on innovations which could replace human workers. Instead of those that would make them more productive. Acemoglu argues that AI is headed in the wrong direction. “We use it too much for automating and not enough to provide expertise and information to employees.”
He believes that innovations that keep people working should sustain growth. He says that complementary uses of AI won’t appear unless the industry invests significant time and energy into them. Even then, it is not guaranteed that the advancements will benefit workers. Acemoglu, along with his colleagues, believe that it is best to adopt AI at a slower pacein order to avoid the risks and benefits
that market fundamentalists may want. He believes that government regulation can help to promote a measured pace. However, he also believes that if “hype” surrounding AI decreases, the rush to adopt it “will naturally reduce.”
The more hype and the faster you go, the less likely it is that you will need to make a course correction. If you’re driving at 200 miles per hour, it’s difficult to make a 180 degree turn.
